Mourinho has stronger hand in Chelsea game

The teams finishing first, second and third in the Premier League will have new managers in place for the start of next season. Well, 'new' is quite right.

David Moyes has been announced as Manchester United's new manager, Manuel Pellegrini is odds-on favourite for the Man City job, and Jose Mourinho is reported to be ending his tenure at Real Madrid - or having it ended for him - and taking up the reins from Rafa Benitez at Chelsea. From fan-enemy to fan-favourite, the world will wait with baited breath to see how the 'Special One' does second time around at Stamford Bridge.

There are plenty of details to be ironed out. Real will want compensating, even though they dearly want rid of Mourinho. The Portuguese manager has alienated the media (typical), the opposition (understandable) and also the club's star players, like Iker Casillas, Sergio Ramos, Pepe and Marcelo (unforgivable). Where once the ex-Porto and Internazionale manager specialised in uniting his teams under his leadership, like a modern day Achilles, just like the epic Greek Mourinho's weak spot has been found, and his usual tactics of blind loyalty to the end have failed to work.

That Mourinho has lasted three years in the Spanish capital is an achievement of sorts, but that he won't be missed tells the true story. Overlooked for either of the Manchester jobs, and with Paris St Germain holding on tightly to Carlo Ancelotti, the only place Mourinho can realistically go is back to Chelsea. So how come he has the stronger hand in negotiations?

The answer is as simple this: as much as Mourinho can only go to Chelsea, Chelsea can only go for Mourinho. The Blues have run through the course of young coaching prodigies (Andre Villas-Boas), former player (Roberto di Matteo), World Cup winner (Felipe Scolari), Italian maestro (Ancelotti), and temporary World traveller (Guus Hiddink). Who else can they go for, and who would want a potentially career threatening or simply short term move? Apart from Sven-Goran Erikssen.

A Jurgen Klopp would want to start another dynasty, like he has at Dortmund, Manuel Pellegrini has already suffered the bite of a big club, while Antonio Conte, Michael Laudrap, and Frank de Boer do not need the hassle of the Chelsea system. Even Rafa Benitez thought twice before joining.

Jupp Heynckes could be a short term option, but why would he want to allow his potential treble winning legacy at Bayern Munich be tarnished at a club as unstable as Chelsea, while Roberto Martinez does not have the reputation that Roman Abramovich would desire, and Roberto Mancini is another club's cast off.

Mourinho is at least a favourite with the terraces and has proved himself once already with Chelsea. He ticks the most boxes by a long way and it will be fascinating to see what demands he issues to the Russian billionaire and what demands he accepts in return. Working with Technical Director Michael Emenalo? Allowing the club to control the transfer strategy to some extent? How much of his backroom staff Chelsea will buy from Madrid?

The only manager who is available and might be interested would be Rafa Benitez, a winning at home and abroad, but there is no way the fans would accept him, so where else can Chelsea turn but Mourinho?

How much control Mourinho has at Chelsea may depend on how much money Madrid ask for in compensation. Those negotiations will take a while to resolve, with both sides in equally weak positions - the buyer has very few other options, while the seller is desperate to get rid.

If Chelsea can get him cheaply, then they can get in the rest of his backroom staff. If he's expensive, then Chelsea can say to their new man that the Blues were his only option so shut up and put up.

Personally, I think there will be a mix of success and fireworks, maybe a league title, but then a big fall out, with Mourinho doing enough to raise public opinion so he can get the Portugal job. Chelsea will be sated for a while, but the fall out will see Abramovich veering violently away from the policy of satisfying the fans and turning to someone who will satisfy him, until the point where Chelsea aren't winning and we go through the seven circles of Chelsea hell again.

Whatever happens, the neutrals will be entertained.

Arsenal should only celebrate if Wenger spends in the summer

Let's get this out of the way first - I am a Tottenham supporter, so it is very hard for me to watch Arsenal players, coaches and supporters celebrate, especially when it comes at the cost of my own club.

But a thought did occur when I watched the scenes at full time at St James' Park on Match of the Day - just why were Arsenal celebrating so much? Sure, those of us at White Hart Lane would have 'gone f-ing mental' had we snatched fourth place and the chance to test our nerves again in a Champions League play-off, but then again Tottenham have only qualified for Europe's premier competition once (in it's current form). For Arsenal, it is almost a given.


To explain my point, consider the Aston Villa fans when they found out they would be safe - should they celebrate as if they had won the title? No, because a team the size and quality of Aston Villa should not secure Premier League safety with just one game to spare. Relief, naturally, tons of it, but celebration?

Of course, the margins for finishing in the Top 4 are a lot smaller than finishing in the Top 17, but the reaction on Sunday evening in Newcastle continues the worrying trend at Arsenal over the last five years or so. Ambitions continue to slip, to a point where locking in that fourth place finish on the final day is nor a massive achievement.

Now, if it means Arsene Wenger can stop operating in the relative bargain bin of the big teams' transfer market, stops signing one season wonders from France (Olivier Giroud), recently relegated Bundesliga players (Lukas Podolski), inconsistent hair transplant victims (Gervinho), and Sebastien Squillaci, then it would be a cause for celebration. If Arsenal can move on from a collective of young players struggling to meet the hype, established internationals and European stars who cannot establish themselves in the Gunners starting XI, and one or two genuinely world class players, to a side resembling the early Wenger teams, aligning break neck pace with a winning mentality and a rock solid defence, then the finale to the 2012-13 season will be remembered as the moment that re-launched Arsenal Football Club.

I admire the way Wenger has managed to run Arsenal economically and prudently, especially since the building of the Emirates. The stick he gets for an unwillingness to spend money the club doesn't have is ridiculous, however not enough is made of the many he has spent. 17 years in the Champions League and the team has changed from van Persie, Fabregas, Nasri and Toure to Giroud, Ramsey, Cazorla and Mertesacker. The star players shine less brightly than their predecessors, while those around them are of a much lower standard. Arsenal used to have young prodigies bristling for the chance to play, whereas now Wenger has players sat on the bench who he would rather not have to rely on.

This summer we can expect big spending from Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea as they prop up new managers. Liverpool will hope to continue their good form from the first half of 2013, although the likelihood is Everton will suffer in the wake of David Moyes' departure. Arsenal and Tottenham will be going head to head, and whoever has the better summer transfer window is likely to come out on top next season. Both teams could do with a new lead striker, while Arsenal lack fortitude in midfield and Spurs lack a playmaker. At the back Totttenham will be happier with their lot, while rumours persist over the Gunners' No.1 spot.

What gets me is that while the likes of Villas-Boas and Brendan Rodgers look up, Wenger is more worried about what is below. The Top 4 as a trophy did not sit well with ordinary football fans, and while it is a sign of the evolution of modern day football it also demonstrates a worrying attitude from Wenger. Nobody believed him when he said at the beginning of the season that Arsenal were title contenders, and most alarmingly of all was that you did not feel Wenger really believed it either.

It is apparent that Wenger is caught between a rock and a hard place - set targets too high and they will be dismissed out of hand, set them too low and there is a chance the club becomes complacent. However, it is better to fail aiming high than fail aiming low.

Wenger himself needs to demand more from his players, who might not cost the top amount in transfer fees but certainly take home big wages (even by your average Premiership players' standard, and some Arsenal players are very average cough Bendtner cough) but the Frenchman also needs to sharpen up his act in the transfer market. Newcastle signed Moussa Sissoko, a rampaging, physical box to box midfielder, for around £3million with agent fees, where were Arsenal? Tottenham signed Hugo Lloris, Jan Vertonghen, two players who would have loved to have joined Arsenal by all accounts, but Wenger said no. Why? Blind loyalty? Or has the ex-Monaco boss started to doubt himself and worry a little too much about what might happen if the transfer doesn't work out, rather than what will happen if the transfer succeeds?

The one ace in the hole that Arsenal have, especially over their North London rivals, is they have the new stadium already. Other teams will have to restrain their budgets to pay for a bigger capacity, however the Financial Fair Play rules may turn that Ace into a Jack or ten. Still, if Wenger is gambling that everyone else will be penny pinching and Arsenal can take advantage of their financial planning, I fear he is massively mistaken.

So this it, a crucial summer that will either make those last day celebrations to start with more to come, or the final hurrah as the club continues to slowly slip away from the top.

Championship Play-off Preview

Crystal Palace vs Watford

The biggest game in World sport. The £50million, £60million, £200million decider. For the victor, rewards beyond their imaginations. The losers? Another season of Championship chaos.

Palace and Watford enter the play-off final at Wembley epitomising two different strategies. Palace relies on a productive youth system, exploiting their relatively large London catchment area (at least compared to other sides in the capital), identifying, nurturing, and then polishing young talent. Wilfried Zaha is the latest starlet off the Palace production line, and the England international will be playing in the Premiership whatever happens, with a summer switch to Manchester United already sealed.

Following him is Jonathan Williams, with a quick google showing links to Tottenham, Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool, and after the Eagles recent financial woes it is fortunate that their academy is so effective and productive. It would please many if a club which relied so heavily on young British talent was able to compete in the Premiership.

Watford, on the other hand, have proved somewhat controversial in their methods. Last summer the Pozzo family took charge at Vicarage Road. The Pozzos own Italian outfit Udinese and Spanish La Liga team Granada, and Watford have joined that affiliation. Udinese are the main club and have an enviable scouting system – players like Alexis Sanchez, Goklan Inler, Fabio Quagliarella and Kwadwo Asamoah are just some of the names to have moved on to bigger and better things, earner Udinese a fortune in the process – while Granada was bought to provide competitive football for those players who could not make it into the Italian side.

Watford initially joined as another feeder club for Udinese, exploiting Football League rules that placed limits on domestic loans but no limit on loans from abroad. While there was little blame on the Hornets for exploiting the gaping hole in the rules, the Football League have moved to outlaw such methods from next season. In the mean time Watford, under Gianfranco Zola, finished just outside the automatic relegation places, experiencing heartbreak on the final day as they failed to get the win that would have seen them in the Premiership already.

The luck that was missing came back in abundance in their play-off semi final, as opponents Leicester missed a penalty that would have won Nigel Pearson’s side the tie, and Watford went up the other end and scoredthe winner through Troy Deeney.

"Whichever team is promoted will face a difficult summer, with players leaving both teams and rivals looking to snap up their talent."

Watford have claimed that they will make the loan moves of players like Matej Vydra, Marco Cassetti and Almen Abdi permanent should they win promotion, and Fernando Forestieri has already made the permanent transfer from Italy to England.

Back in Italy, however, the feeling of Udine fans is thatthe Pozzo family actually prefer English football over their traditionalheartland. The sheer size of the broadcasting revenues in the Premiership has led some fans to accuse the Pozzo son, Gino, of focusing on Watford more and more, and there could be a scenario were Watford become the club with all the star names that loans them out to Udinese – what would the critics say then?

Back to the bank holiday match, and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top. Ian Holloway entertains and annoys in equal measures, while plenty of neutral fans have sympathy for Zola for the way he was treated at West Ham. The likeable Italian and eccentric West Countryman will add some colour to post match interviews, and they both appear to coach their sides to play good, attacking football.

To the game itself, and it looks to be a pretty even affair. Palace will look to Zaha, who scored the two goals that knocked out Brighton in their play-off semi final, and Yannick Bolasie. The absence of Glenn Murray is a big blow and it might need Kevin Phillips to come off the bench and grab the goals that Palace need.

Watford on the other hand have less worries, and will look to Deeney and Vydra to continue their excellent form this season in front of goal. They will come up against Julian Speroni, one of the best keepers in the championship, and whoever comes out on top will decide who wins.

Whichever team is promoted will face a difficult summer, with players leaving both teams and rivals looking to snap up their talent. Neither side is likely to be a big spender and they are likely to struggle in the Premiership next season, much like Reading have this time around. The money on offer, however, will secure either clubs’ future for a few years at least, and after their recent financial woes that is at least something to look forward to.

Can Wigan bounce back next season?

After the euphoria of winning the FA Cup, Wigan came crashing down to reality after a 4-1 loss to Arsenal confirmed their relegation. There will be no final day hurrah at the DW stadium on sunday, simply a resignation that the only way is down from here on.

Relegation in itself is not the be all and end all. Many clubs have gone down and come back in better shape. The drop can force teams into making tough decisions, jettisoning big name but ultimately under-performing players, getting rid of their wages and starting afresh. West Ham look in a better shape now than when they were relegated from the Premier League in 2011, and Newcastle, despite their struggles this season, are in a far happier place all round now than when they went down in 2010.

The problem for Wigan is they have no high earners sapping resources out of the club. They have batted well above their average for the past nine years. The Latics, alongside probably only Everton, have been the most efficient Premiership team in terms of resources:results. The FA Cup win was the cherry on top of the cake, but the cake has turned stale.

Parachute payments will soften their landing in the Championship, while the players contracts should all include paycuts dependant on relegation. Europa League qualification, thanks to that Cup win, will bring in more money and no doubt there will be vultures circling the likes of Callum McManaman, James McCarthy and Shaun Maloney, but even if player sales bring in big money it is unlikely to be enough to help Wigan return to the promised land.

Wigan are inherently a small club, surrounded by much bigger and more glamorous teams.. The average gate at the DW stadium is just over 19,000. Only QPR have a smaller average crowd, and they want to move out of the restrictive Loftus Road, have the allure of London and a sugar daddy in Tony Fernandes. Dave Whelan has invest his own money to get Wigan to where they are and he deserves much of the credit for Wigan's time in the limelight, but there is a reason why the Lancashire club are owned by a local boy done well and not a oil-rich sheikh or billionaire.


"Wigan are inherently a small club, surrounded by much bigger and more glamorous teams..."

The sad fact is Wigan are simply returning to their natural norm. Even in the Championship, the FA Cup winners will not be one of the bigger sides, with Brighton, Sheffield Wednesday, Derby County, Nottingham Forest, Leicester City, and Leeds all having bigger crowds, and that's without the lure of Premiership football.

The Europa League could prove to be a poisoned chalice. The competition can stretch the resources of even the biggest English sides, and Wigan's low Uefa co-efficient will see them play more qualifying rounds and, should they get through, harder draws. Instead of providing relief from the gruelling Championship campaign it could instead deliver a deadly blow to morale.

On, of course, there is the issue of Roberto Martinez's future. Dave Whelan may say Everton are not a big enough club for the Spanish manager, but they are a hell of a lot bigger than a Championship Wigan. It is unimaginable that Martinez will continue to take charge at the DW after relegation - he has already shown fantastic loyalty to the Latics and for the sake of his own career and his own ambitions he must move.

With revenue's crumbling, players and manager leaving, an unwanted Europa League campaign and a difficulty attractive new talent, the odds are Wigan will are more likely to find themselves in League One than the Premiership in 2014. They have earned the respect and admiration of many a football fan, but this sunday may be the last we see of Wigan for a long time.

Benitez the greatest Squad manager?

There is a reluctance in football to give Rafa Benitez any undue credit. Alex Ferguson mocked the Spaniard for talking about his CV so much, but a quick gander shows that the former Valencia and Liverpool manager has an awful lot to gloat about – 2 La Ligas, 1 Champions League, 1 Uefa Cup, 1 FA Cup, 1 Club World Cup – and could add the Europa League to his collection.

The feeling prevails that Benitez is a grinder, someone with a preference for effective efficiency rather than electrifying entertainment. So the old joke goes: why does Bentiez play two holding midfielders? Because he hasn’t got three.

There is some truth that Benitez prefers containment over openness, but his record shows he is a very good manager. Look where Valencia and Liverpool are now for starters. At Chelsea he was never going to be a fan’s favourite. From day one the fans were waiting for the day their old adversary left, and even a top 4 finish and a European trophy will do little to endear him to the masses at Stamford Bridge.

A closer look reveals Bentiez is a manager of no little skill. His tactics might be dour, but the way he has led the Blues through Champions League and Europa League campaigns, culminating with the final in Amsterdam, to the semi-finals of both the FA Cup and League Cup, and into pole position to finish ahead of Arsenal and Tottenham in the race for the remaining CL places is something to be admired. Chelsea have played 65 games this season, with four left, and yet they look the freshest out of the London trio.

Juan Mata has played 60 times this season. John Terry, blighted by injury and subject to Benitez’s rotation policy, has still played 26 games. Frank Lampard, perhaps no longer of the parish next season, has made 47 appearances. For the players to put in such effort for so long is commendable, but for their manager to rotate the team so successfully, especially with only two misfiring strikers, is simply astounding.

With only Demba Ba joining in the January transfer window, and Daniel Sturridge leaving for Liverpool, Benitez was not even afforded more resources, let alone players he personally wanted. The interim appointment was undermined at every step but still Chelsea are competing and, more importantly, winning.

There are numerous examples of managers who have failed to rotate successfully, and even more who have fallen foul of their players because of the team selections. Harry Redknapp’s Tottenham team notoriously hit the buffers in the latter third of last season, while Barcelona’s fatigue was exposed by a ruthless Bayern Munich in the Champions League. Real Madrid have plenty of disgruntled stars and have fallen short in European and in La Liga, while Roberto Mancini appears to upset a different Manchester City player each week.

Benitez has not. The Spaniard has even managed the egos of Chelsea stalwarts Terry and Lampard, and while those two and others may simply be biding their time until a new man is at the helm, lesser man have felt the wrath of the dressing room leaders.

He may not be the man you want in charge of your club, but there is no doubt that Rafa Benitez is an accomplished and successful manager. He will toe the party line when it keeps the fans onside, or at least off his back. While other managers struggle to compete on more than one front, Benitez rotates his way to success, and it is a shame that his management skills are not recognised properly.

Budesliga yet another flavour of the month

 Wilkommen! Guten Tag! Das, erm Spielsplaztenberger. Okay, my GCSE German needs some brushing up, but the Bundesliga is here! Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are in the Champions League, and ze Germans are set to rule us all (in football terms). This is the age of the Mannschaft, all hail the mighty Farterland!!

Actually, let’s not. While the rest of the media loses their collective shit over the indomitable Germans, gushes over their ownership models and sycophantically applauds the young German talent coming through, how about we enjoy some perspective? Yes, we should not stick fingers in our ears and our heads in the sand but every three-to-five years there is another fad, another first-mover, another market leader, another football flavour that is THE BEST THING EVER and must be copied head to toe by the English powers that be if we are to achieve anything, ever.

At the moment, it’s the German model. Before that, La Masia and Barcelona. Before that, England was dominating Europe, following on from the all Serie A Champions League final of 2003, which naturally was a reaction to Real Madrid and Spain’s supremacy. Go into the nineties and earlier, see the great Italian dominance of Europe, including Milan’s successful defence of their European crown in 1990, and of course Ajax’s famous academy system.

As media attention has ramped up and become increasingly desperate to seek headlines by resorting to extremes, it is now the norm to decide whoever wins has the best plan, the best set up, the best system, and everyone else is failing. The German duo were extremely impressive as they beat Real Madrid and Barcelona. Bayern Munich comprehensively outclassed the Catalans who struggled without their talisman Leo Messi and, probably more importantly, without Carlos Puyol and Javier Mascherano, while Real left it too late to undo the damage exacted by Dortmund in the first leg.

There was some fantastic German talent on offer, and of that England manager Roy Hodgson can be envious. But the fact is the Premier League is such a worldwide phenomena, brings in such massive revenue and can offer such massive wages that of course it will attract the world’s best, in the same way that Serie A in the 90’s attracted the best players because it paid the biggest fees and wages, and how Real Madrid and Barcelona can tempt the best players in the Premier League to Spain, given their unfair share of La Liga TV revenue. To think English teams can easily adopt the German system of bringing through youth is simplistic. There are many unique factors (language, cultural immigration, money) that come into play.

But hey, I hear you cry, if we want a successful national team we need to follow the German method (which I imagine is the football equivalent of the missionary position – maximum efficiency). Let’s look at the record books – before 2002, Germany had won three world cups, finished runners up three times, and semi-finalists three times. They also won three European championships, twice runners up, and once semi-finalists. What I am saying is, the Germans have always been successful at international level, and it is somewhat ironic that they have not won a major international trophy since 1996 – seventeen years of hurt, it makes my heart bleed.

It is the Spanish model, shown up this week, that has proved the most successful in recent times, but again there are mitigating circumstances. The concentration of most of the players in two teams – the two teams in La Liga – will have helped the cohesion and understanding of the team. That Spain is basically Barcelona with Real’s power is no coincidence.

There is a lot to admire about the German system, just as there is much to admire in the Spanish, Dutch, Italian or Scottish systems (okay, maybe stretched a little far there). Germany certainly treats its fans a little better, and the ownership model has a lot of plus points, but equally you could argue that the rules that give fans 51% of the club allows Bayern Munich to dominate, as the signing of Mario Gotze from Dortmund shows. Bayern have finished well ahead of their rivals and you can only see the gap getting bigger. There is no Sheikh on the horizon to mix things up a bit.

Ticket prices are a lot lower, and it is shocking that as TV revenue for the Premier League increases so do match day prices, but recent announcements that ticket prices were to increase in the Bundesliga led to protests. It goes to show that’s it’s all relative, although naturally we’d rather have the German supporters’ price problems than ours.

When the English FA built St George’s Park they received phone calls from across the continent asking them what they were doing, how they were doing it, what they were planning, what they wanted out of it. Everyone wants to know the best practices so they can adopt and adapt to meet their requirements and their systems. When England had three semi finalists in the Champions League other countries were looking at how we marketed the league, how we tapped international markets, how we negotiated our TV deals. Italy changed from an individual to a collective bargaining agreement, Germany and Spain started moving matches to appeal to the Asian market. We need to do the same.

We should identify the best things about the German system, the Spanish system, in fact all systems, see how we can integrate them into how football is run in our country and mould them to suit our circumstances and our needs. Not simply say the Germans are winning ergo we should copy what they do.

Uli Hesse, a writer for ESPN, annually checks the stats and shows the Bundesliga has the most goals in it on average than any of Europe’s leagues, each year for the last decade. Where were the plaudits in 2003? Why weren’t people looking to their tactics and strategies back then? Because they were not winning and English teams were. Then the Spanish came. Now it is time for the Germans.

If we here in England only look to copy others we will always be one step behind. We need to find the best method that suits us, what we want and what we need. Only then can we lead the way and win the trophies. In the mean time, let’s slow down the German love fest. One all-German final does not mean a new era had begun. Yet.

Damiao finally set for Spurs? Maybe not...

ESPN's website today carried quotes from Internacional President Giovanni Luigi indicating that Brazilian international striker and long term Tottenham target Leandro Damiao was set for a move to England.

“If a club want a player, they must talk to the president of the club at which that particular player plays, and not just deal with the agent – that is not correct behaviour,” Luigi told Tutto Mercato.

“Recently we talked with Tottenham, Leandro is very likely to play games in England in the coming year. On the other hand we can exclude Napoli.”

This will come as a great relief to Spurs fans who have become increasingly frustrated at the club's inability to sort out a transfer for the big number 9. The club from North London were first linked with Damiao in 2011, and despite continued rumours of negotiations transfer windows have continued to pass without any resolution.

The form of Emmanuel Adebayor (3 goals in 20 Premier League appearances this season) has been a constant worry for the White Hart Lane club, while Jermain Defoe has only one Premiership goal in 2013. Spurs will need to buy at least one striker in the summer, perhaps two if the rumours of Adebayor's demise are to be believed (and why wouldn't they after his slack attitude this season?).

However, Spurs supporters should not get their hopes up on the back of these quotes. Firstly, Internacional has a tangled mess of a boardroom, it is not like Spurs or most Premier League clubs where there is a chairman or chief executive who is solely responsible for handling transfer talks. Secondly, the club does not wholly own Leandro Damiao's registration, so Luigi is not even the sole negotiator on the seller's side.

Thirdly, and most interestingly/worryingly, Levy has already dealt with the Internacional set-up when Spurs were in talks to sign Sandro. That transfer dragged on but was eventually concluded, and while there may be differences over Damiao's transfer value, you would think the Tottenham chairman had the right guy's phone number having already concluded one transfer with the Brazilian club. Spurs and Internacional also agreed a 'sporting partnership', whatever the hell that means. You'd think that, as a result of all this, Levy and his Brazilian counterpart would be on speaking terms!

Perhaps the most reassuring quote out of all of this for Spurs fans who, like myself, would like to see Damiao at the Lane is that Luigi appears to rule out Napoli as a destination. The Italian team would be flush with cash should they sell Edinson Cavani and will be on the look out for a replacement striker.

Having spent so long chasing Damiao, it would be troubling if Spurs lost out on him now. There is a feeling that Levy should either stump up the cash or focus his efforts elsewhere. One thing is for certain, Tottenham cannot go through another window without improving and adding to their strike force.