Mourinho has stronger hand in Chelsea game

The teams finishing first, second and third in the Premier League will have new managers in place for the start of next season. Well, 'new' is quite right.

David Moyes has been announced as Manchester United's new manager, Manuel Pellegrini is odds-on favourite for the Man City job, and Jose Mourinho is reported to be ending his tenure at Real Madrid - or having it ended for him - and taking up the reins from Rafa Benitez at Chelsea. From fan-enemy to fan-favourite, the world will wait with baited breath to see how the 'Special One' does second time around at Stamford Bridge.

There are plenty of details to be ironed out. Real will want compensating, even though they dearly want rid of Mourinho. The Portuguese manager has alienated the media (typical), the opposition (understandable) and also the club's star players, like Iker Casillas, Sergio Ramos, Pepe and Marcelo (unforgivable). Where once the ex-Porto and Internazionale manager specialised in uniting his teams under his leadership, like a modern day Achilles, just like the epic Greek Mourinho's weak spot has been found, and his usual tactics of blind loyalty to the end have failed to work.

That Mourinho has lasted three years in the Spanish capital is an achievement of sorts, but that he won't be missed tells the true story. Overlooked for either of the Manchester jobs, and with Paris St Germain holding on tightly to Carlo Ancelotti, the only place Mourinho can realistically go is back to Chelsea. So how come he has the stronger hand in negotiations?

The answer is as simple this: as much as Mourinho can only go to Chelsea, Chelsea can only go for Mourinho. The Blues have run through the course of young coaching prodigies (Andre Villas-Boas), former player (Roberto di Matteo), World Cup winner (Felipe Scolari), Italian maestro (Ancelotti), and temporary World traveller (Guus Hiddink). Who else can they go for, and who would want a potentially career threatening or simply short term move? Apart from Sven-Goran Erikssen.

A Jurgen Klopp would want to start another dynasty, like he has at Dortmund, Manuel Pellegrini has already suffered the bite of a big club, while Antonio Conte, Michael Laudrap, and Frank de Boer do not need the hassle of the Chelsea system. Even Rafa Benitez thought twice before joining.

Jupp Heynckes could be a short term option, but why would he want to allow his potential treble winning legacy at Bayern Munich be tarnished at a club as unstable as Chelsea, while Roberto Martinez does not have the reputation that Roman Abramovich would desire, and Roberto Mancini is another club's cast off.

Mourinho is at least a favourite with the terraces and has proved himself once already with Chelsea. He ticks the most boxes by a long way and it will be fascinating to see what demands he issues to the Russian billionaire and what demands he accepts in return. Working with Technical Director Michael Emenalo? Allowing the club to control the transfer strategy to some extent? How much of his backroom staff Chelsea will buy from Madrid?

The only manager who is available and might be interested would be Rafa Benitez, a winning at home and abroad, but there is no way the fans would accept him, so where else can Chelsea turn but Mourinho?

How much control Mourinho has at Chelsea may depend on how much money Madrid ask for in compensation. Those negotiations will take a while to resolve, with both sides in equally weak positions - the buyer has very few other options, while the seller is desperate to get rid.

If Chelsea can get him cheaply, then they can get in the rest of his backroom staff. If he's expensive, then Chelsea can say to their new man that the Blues were his only option so shut up and put up.

Personally, I think there will be a mix of success and fireworks, maybe a league title, but then a big fall out, with Mourinho doing enough to raise public opinion so he can get the Portugal job. Chelsea will be sated for a while, but the fall out will see Abramovich veering violently away from the policy of satisfying the fans and turning to someone who will satisfy him, until the point where Chelsea aren't winning and we go through the seven circles of Chelsea hell again.

Whatever happens, the neutrals will be entertained.

Budesliga yet another flavour of the month

 Wilkommen! Guten Tag! Das, erm Spielsplaztenberger. Okay, my GCSE German needs some brushing up, but the Bundesliga is here! Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are in the Champions League, and ze Germans are set to rule us all (in football terms). This is the age of the Mannschaft, all hail the mighty Farterland!!

Actually, let’s not. While the rest of the media loses their collective shit over the indomitable Germans, gushes over their ownership models and sycophantically applauds the young German talent coming through, how about we enjoy some perspective? Yes, we should not stick fingers in our ears and our heads in the sand but every three-to-five years there is another fad, another first-mover, another market leader, another football flavour that is THE BEST THING EVER and must be copied head to toe by the English powers that be if we are to achieve anything, ever.

At the moment, it’s the German model. Before that, La Masia and Barcelona. Before that, England was dominating Europe, following on from the all Serie A Champions League final of 2003, which naturally was a reaction to Real Madrid and Spain’s supremacy. Go into the nineties and earlier, see the great Italian dominance of Europe, including Milan’s successful defence of their European crown in 1990, and of course Ajax’s famous academy system.

As media attention has ramped up and become increasingly desperate to seek headlines by resorting to extremes, it is now the norm to decide whoever wins has the best plan, the best set up, the best system, and everyone else is failing. The German duo were extremely impressive as they beat Real Madrid and Barcelona. Bayern Munich comprehensively outclassed the Catalans who struggled without their talisman Leo Messi and, probably more importantly, without Carlos Puyol and Javier Mascherano, while Real left it too late to undo the damage exacted by Dortmund in the first leg.

There was some fantastic German talent on offer, and of that England manager Roy Hodgson can be envious. But the fact is the Premier League is such a worldwide phenomena, brings in such massive revenue and can offer such massive wages that of course it will attract the world’s best, in the same way that Serie A in the 90’s attracted the best players because it paid the biggest fees and wages, and how Real Madrid and Barcelona can tempt the best players in the Premier League to Spain, given their unfair share of La Liga TV revenue. To think English teams can easily adopt the German system of bringing through youth is simplistic. There are many unique factors (language, cultural immigration, money) that come into play.

But hey, I hear you cry, if we want a successful national team we need to follow the German method (which I imagine is the football equivalent of the missionary position – maximum efficiency). Let’s look at the record books – before 2002, Germany had won three world cups, finished runners up three times, and semi-finalists three times. They also won three European championships, twice runners up, and once semi-finalists. What I am saying is, the Germans have always been successful at international level, and it is somewhat ironic that they have not won a major international trophy since 1996 – seventeen years of hurt, it makes my heart bleed.

It is the Spanish model, shown up this week, that has proved the most successful in recent times, but again there are mitigating circumstances. The concentration of most of the players in two teams – the two teams in La Liga – will have helped the cohesion and understanding of the team. That Spain is basically Barcelona with Real’s power is no coincidence.

There is a lot to admire about the German system, just as there is much to admire in the Spanish, Dutch, Italian or Scottish systems (okay, maybe stretched a little far there). Germany certainly treats its fans a little better, and the ownership model has a lot of plus points, but equally you could argue that the rules that give fans 51% of the club allows Bayern Munich to dominate, as the signing of Mario Gotze from Dortmund shows. Bayern have finished well ahead of their rivals and you can only see the gap getting bigger. There is no Sheikh on the horizon to mix things up a bit.

Ticket prices are a lot lower, and it is shocking that as TV revenue for the Premier League increases so do match day prices, but recent announcements that ticket prices were to increase in the Bundesliga led to protests. It goes to show that’s it’s all relative, although naturally we’d rather have the German supporters’ price problems than ours.

When the English FA built St George’s Park they received phone calls from across the continent asking them what they were doing, how they were doing it, what they were planning, what they wanted out of it. Everyone wants to know the best practices so they can adopt and adapt to meet their requirements and their systems. When England had three semi finalists in the Champions League other countries were looking at how we marketed the league, how we tapped international markets, how we negotiated our TV deals. Italy changed from an individual to a collective bargaining agreement, Germany and Spain started moving matches to appeal to the Asian market. We need to do the same.

We should identify the best things about the German system, the Spanish system, in fact all systems, see how we can integrate them into how football is run in our country and mould them to suit our circumstances and our needs. Not simply say the Germans are winning ergo we should copy what they do.

Uli Hesse, a writer for ESPN, annually checks the stats and shows the Bundesliga has the most goals in it on average than any of Europe’s leagues, each year for the last decade. Where were the plaudits in 2003? Why weren’t people looking to their tactics and strategies back then? Because they were not winning and English teams were. Then the Spanish came. Now it is time for the Germans.

If we here in England only look to copy others we will always be one step behind. We need to find the best method that suits us, what we want and what we need. Only then can we lead the way and win the trophies. In the mean time, let’s slow down the German love fest. One all-German final does not mean a new era had begun. Yet.

Another Example of UnReal Expectations

Say 'unrealistic expectations' and Real Madrid come to mind. A team that sacks manager if they do not play in a style accustomed to the legacy of the Spanish giants, even if they have won the league (Capello) or the Champions League (Del Bosque). But after you can now add Newcastle United to that list.

Left back Jose Enrique is quoted in The Sun as saying "Our goal at the start of the season was to qualify for the Europa League but the reality now is different.' I'm sorry, Europa League? What planet are they on?

Newcastle have a decent enough side that should, should sit comfortably in the 10th-14th region of the Premier League. To think they could finish top 6 or 7 is laughable, especially when you consider they had sold off most of their best players upon relegation two years ago, had a number of players either with personal issues or lacked experience, and a manager who had yet to establish himself in the Premier League.

Unless they were expecting to get lucky in the Carling Cup (they beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge which is undoubtedly impressive but then lost four-nil at home to an Arsenal side determined to clinch some silverware at last) their aspirations were mad.

When your side contains the like of James Perch, Danny Guthrie, Nile Ranger (who has potential but is still very young) and Mike Williamson you cannot expect to finish above all of Sunderland, Villa, Everton, Bolton, even Stoke. Yes, they are only behind Sunderland and Bolton of that list, mainly because the others have been so woeful, but come on - Top 7? Seriously....

If think Newcastle have done well this season. In fact I think they have overperformed impressively. Carroll will be a loss, no doubt, and they need to be careful with how they spend the £30 million.

Football is unpredictable, and there is no probelm with ambition. You have to aim for the top; there is no point in turning up if you don't. But for Jose Enrique to moan that the side cannot or will not qualify for Europe is laughable.

His quotes are more likely to be the foundations of his reasoning for moving on from Newcastle in the summer, perhaps a general nudge nudge to suitors that he is interested in a move. However, if the club had not filled his head with such nonsense maybe he would not be so eager for pastures new...