Can Wigan bounce back next season?

After the euphoria of winning the FA Cup, Wigan came crashing down to reality after a 4-1 loss to Arsenal confirmed their relegation. There will be no final day hurrah at the DW stadium on sunday, simply a resignation that the only way is down from here on.

Relegation in itself is not the be all and end all. Many clubs have gone down and come back in better shape. The drop can force teams into making tough decisions, jettisoning big name but ultimately under-performing players, getting rid of their wages and starting afresh. West Ham look in a better shape now than when they were relegated from the Premier League in 2011, and Newcastle, despite their struggles this season, are in a far happier place all round now than when they went down in 2010.

The problem for Wigan is they have no high earners sapping resources out of the club. They have batted well above their average for the past nine years. The Latics, alongside probably only Everton, have been the most efficient Premiership team in terms of resources:results. The FA Cup win was the cherry on top of the cake, but the cake has turned stale.

Parachute payments will soften their landing in the Championship, while the players contracts should all include paycuts dependant on relegation. Europa League qualification, thanks to that Cup win, will bring in more money and no doubt there will be vultures circling the likes of Callum McManaman, James McCarthy and Shaun Maloney, but even if player sales bring in big money it is unlikely to be enough to help Wigan return to the promised land.

Wigan are inherently a small club, surrounded by much bigger and more glamorous teams.. The average gate at the DW stadium is just over 19,000. Only QPR have a smaller average crowd, and they want to move out of the restrictive Loftus Road, have the allure of London and a sugar daddy in Tony Fernandes. Dave Whelan has invest his own money to get Wigan to where they are and he deserves much of the credit for Wigan's time in the limelight, but there is a reason why the Lancashire club are owned by a local boy done well and not a oil-rich sheikh or billionaire.


"Wigan are inherently a small club, surrounded by much bigger and more glamorous teams..."

The sad fact is Wigan are simply returning to their natural norm. Even in the Championship, the FA Cup winners will not be one of the bigger sides, with Brighton, Sheffield Wednesday, Derby County, Nottingham Forest, Leicester City, and Leeds all having bigger crowds, and that's without the lure of Premiership football.

The Europa League could prove to be a poisoned chalice. The competition can stretch the resources of even the biggest English sides, and Wigan's low Uefa co-efficient will see them play more qualifying rounds and, should they get through, harder draws. Instead of providing relief from the gruelling Championship campaign it could instead deliver a deadly blow to morale.

On, of course, there is the issue of Roberto Martinez's future. Dave Whelan may say Everton are not a big enough club for the Spanish manager, but they are a hell of a lot bigger than a Championship Wigan. It is unimaginable that Martinez will continue to take charge at the DW after relegation - he has already shown fantastic loyalty to the Latics and for the sake of his own career and his own ambitions he must move.

With revenue's crumbling, players and manager leaving, an unwanted Europa League campaign and a difficulty attractive new talent, the odds are Wigan will are more likely to find themselves in League One than the Premiership in 2014. They have earned the respect and admiration of many a football fan, but this sunday may be the last we see of Wigan for a long time.

Benitez the greatest Squad manager?

There is a reluctance in football to give Rafa Benitez any undue credit. Alex Ferguson mocked the Spaniard for talking about his CV so much, but a quick gander shows that the former Valencia and Liverpool manager has an awful lot to gloat about – 2 La Ligas, 1 Champions League, 1 Uefa Cup, 1 FA Cup, 1 Club World Cup – and could add the Europa League to his collection.

The feeling prevails that Benitez is a grinder, someone with a preference for effective efficiency rather than electrifying entertainment. So the old joke goes: why does Bentiez play two holding midfielders? Because he hasn’t got three.

There is some truth that Benitez prefers containment over openness, but his record shows he is a very good manager. Look where Valencia and Liverpool are now for starters. At Chelsea he was never going to be a fan’s favourite. From day one the fans were waiting for the day their old adversary left, and even a top 4 finish and a European trophy will do little to endear him to the masses at Stamford Bridge.

A closer look reveals Bentiez is a manager of no little skill. His tactics might be dour, but the way he has led the Blues through Champions League and Europa League campaigns, culminating with the final in Amsterdam, to the semi-finals of both the FA Cup and League Cup, and into pole position to finish ahead of Arsenal and Tottenham in the race for the remaining CL places is something to be admired. Chelsea have played 65 games this season, with four left, and yet they look the freshest out of the London trio.

Juan Mata has played 60 times this season. John Terry, blighted by injury and subject to Benitez’s rotation policy, has still played 26 games. Frank Lampard, perhaps no longer of the parish next season, has made 47 appearances. For the players to put in such effort for so long is commendable, but for their manager to rotate the team so successfully, especially with only two misfiring strikers, is simply astounding.

With only Demba Ba joining in the January transfer window, and Daniel Sturridge leaving for Liverpool, Benitez was not even afforded more resources, let alone players he personally wanted. The interim appointment was undermined at every step but still Chelsea are competing and, more importantly, winning.

There are numerous examples of managers who have failed to rotate successfully, and even more who have fallen foul of their players because of the team selections. Harry Redknapp’s Tottenham team notoriously hit the buffers in the latter third of last season, while Barcelona’s fatigue was exposed by a ruthless Bayern Munich in the Champions League. Real Madrid have plenty of disgruntled stars and have fallen short in European and in La Liga, while Roberto Mancini appears to upset a different Manchester City player each week.

Benitez has not. The Spaniard has even managed the egos of Chelsea stalwarts Terry and Lampard, and while those two and others may simply be biding their time until a new man is at the helm, lesser man have felt the wrath of the dressing room leaders.

He may not be the man you want in charge of your club, but there is no doubt that Rafa Benitez is an accomplished and successful manager. He will toe the party line when it keeps the fans onside, or at least off his back. While other managers struggle to compete on more than one front, Benitez rotates his way to success, and it is a shame that his management skills are not recognised properly.

Budesliga yet another flavour of the month

 Wilkommen! Guten Tag! Das, erm Spielsplaztenberger. Okay, my GCSE German needs some brushing up, but the Bundesliga is here! Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are in the Champions League, and ze Germans are set to rule us all (in football terms). This is the age of the Mannschaft, all hail the mighty Farterland!!

Actually, let’s not. While the rest of the media loses their collective shit over the indomitable Germans, gushes over their ownership models and sycophantically applauds the young German talent coming through, how about we enjoy some perspective? Yes, we should not stick fingers in our ears and our heads in the sand but every three-to-five years there is another fad, another first-mover, another market leader, another football flavour that is THE BEST THING EVER and must be copied head to toe by the English powers that be if we are to achieve anything, ever.

At the moment, it’s the German model. Before that, La Masia and Barcelona. Before that, England was dominating Europe, following on from the all Serie A Champions League final of 2003, which naturally was a reaction to Real Madrid and Spain’s supremacy. Go into the nineties and earlier, see the great Italian dominance of Europe, including Milan’s successful defence of their European crown in 1990, and of course Ajax’s famous academy system.

As media attention has ramped up and become increasingly desperate to seek headlines by resorting to extremes, it is now the norm to decide whoever wins has the best plan, the best set up, the best system, and everyone else is failing. The German duo were extremely impressive as they beat Real Madrid and Barcelona. Bayern Munich comprehensively outclassed the Catalans who struggled without their talisman Leo Messi and, probably more importantly, without Carlos Puyol and Javier Mascherano, while Real left it too late to undo the damage exacted by Dortmund in the first leg.

There was some fantastic German talent on offer, and of that England manager Roy Hodgson can be envious. But the fact is the Premier League is such a worldwide phenomena, brings in such massive revenue and can offer such massive wages that of course it will attract the world’s best, in the same way that Serie A in the 90’s attracted the best players because it paid the biggest fees and wages, and how Real Madrid and Barcelona can tempt the best players in the Premier League to Spain, given their unfair share of La Liga TV revenue. To think English teams can easily adopt the German system of bringing through youth is simplistic. There are many unique factors (language, cultural immigration, money) that come into play.

But hey, I hear you cry, if we want a successful national team we need to follow the German method (which I imagine is the football equivalent of the missionary position – maximum efficiency). Let’s look at the record books – before 2002, Germany had won three world cups, finished runners up three times, and semi-finalists three times. They also won three European championships, twice runners up, and once semi-finalists. What I am saying is, the Germans have always been successful at international level, and it is somewhat ironic that they have not won a major international trophy since 1996 – seventeen years of hurt, it makes my heart bleed.

It is the Spanish model, shown up this week, that has proved the most successful in recent times, but again there are mitigating circumstances. The concentration of most of the players in two teams – the two teams in La Liga – will have helped the cohesion and understanding of the team. That Spain is basically Barcelona with Real’s power is no coincidence.

There is a lot to admire about the German system, just as there is much to admire in the Spanish, Dutch, Italian or Scottish systems (okay, maybe stretched a little far there). Germany certainly treats its fans a little better, and the ownership model has a lot of plus points, but equally you could argue that the rules that give fans 51% of the club allows Bayern Munich to dominate, as the signing of Mario Gotze from Dortmund shows. Bayern have finished well ahead of their rivals and you can only see the gap getting bigger. There is no Sheikh on the horizon to mix things up a bit.

Ticket prices are a lot lower, and it is shocking that as TV revenue for the Premier League increases so do match day prices, but recent announcements that ticket prices were to increase in the Bundesliga led to protests. It goes to show that’s it’s all relative, although naturally we’d rather have the German supporters’ price problems than ours.

When the English FA built St George’s Park they received phone calls from across the continent asking them what they were doing, how they were doing it, what they were planning, what they wanted out of it. Everyone wants to know the best practices so they can adopt and adapt to meet their requirements and their systems. When England had three semi finalists in the Champions League other countries were looking at how we marketed the league, how we tapped international markets, how we negotiated our TV deals. Italy changed from an individual to a collective bargaining agreement, Germany and Spain started moving matches to appeal to the Asian market. We need to do the same.

We should identify the best things about the German system, the Spanish system, in fact all systems, see how we can integrate them into how football is run in our country and mould them to suit our circumstances and our needs. Not simply say the Germans are winning ergo we should copy what they do.

Uli Hesse, a writer for ESPN, annually checks the stats and shows the Bundesliga has the most goals in it on average than any of Europe’s leagues, each year for the last decade. Where were the plaudits in 2003? Why weren’t people looking to their tactics and strategies back then? Because they were not winning and English teams were. Then the Spanish came. Now it is time for the Germans.

If we here in England only look to copy others we will always be one step behind. We need to find the best method that suits us, what we want and what we need. Only then can we lead the way and win the trophies. In the mean time, let’s slow down the German love fest. One all-German final does not mean a new era had begun. Yet.

Damiao finally set for Spurs? Maybe not...

ESPN's website today carried quotes from Internacional President Giovanni Luigi indicating that Brazilian international striker and long term Tottenham target Leandro Damiao was set for a move to England.

“If a club want a player, they must talk to the president of the club at which that particular player plays, and not just deal with the agent – that is not correct behaviour,” Luigi told Tutto Mercato.

“Recently we talked with Tottenham, Leandro is very likely to play games in England in the coming year. On the other hand we can exclude Napoli.”

This will come as a great relief to Spurs fans who have become increasingly frustrated at the club's inability to sort out a transfer for the big number 9. The club from North London were first linked with Damiao in 2011, and despite continued rumours of negotiations transfer windows have continued to pass without any resolution.

The form of Emmanuel Adebayor (3 goals in 20 Premier League appearances this season) has been a constant worry for the White Hart Lane club, while Jermain Defoe has only one Premiership goal in 2013. Spurs will need to buy at least one striker in the summer, perhaps two if the rumours of Adebayor's demise are to be believed (and why wouldn't they after his slack attitude this season?).

However, Spurs supporters should not get their hopes up on the back of these quotes. Firstly, Internacional has a tangled mess of a boardroom, it is not like Spurs or most Premier League clubs where there is a chairman or chief executive who is solely responsible for handling transfer talks. Secondly, the club does not wholly own Leandro Damiao's registration, so Luigi is not even the sole negotiator on the seller's side.

Thirdly, and most interestingly/worryingly, Levy has already dealt with the Internacional set-up when Spurs were in talks to sign Sandro. That transfer dragged on but was eventually concluded, and while there may be differences over Damiao's transfer value, you would think the Tottenham chairman had the right guy's phone number having already concluded one transfer with the Brazilian club. Spurs and Internacional also agreed a 'sporting partnership', whatever the hell that means. You'd think that, as a result of all this, Levy and his Brazilian counterpart would be on speaking terms!

Perhaps the most reassuring quote out of all of this for Spurs fans who, like myself, would like to see Damiao at the Lane is that Luigi appears to rule out Napoli as a destination. The Italian team would be flush with cash should they sell Edinson Cavani and will be on the look out for a replacement striker.

Having spent so long chasing Damiao, it would be troubling if Spurs lost out on him now. There is a feeling that Levy should either stump up the cash or focus his efforts elsewhere. One thing is for certain, Tottenham cannot go through another window without improving and adding to their strike force.

Aston Villa have earned the favour of the neutrals

Aston Villa is a big club. They have won the first division seven times (albeit only once since the First World War), won the FA Cup seven times, five League Cups and are one of only five English teams to have won the European Cup, in 1982. Villa Park holds over 42,000 and was once a venue for FA Cup semi finals, and the club has competed in the Premiership every season since the league began.

The club struggles to compete with the flash teams from London nor the giants from Merseyside and Manchester and under Martin O’Neill the Villains hit a glass ceiling, battling for a top four spot only to slide in the second half of the season to finish sixth three times in a row. That frustration that the club could not or would not spend and push higher led to O’Neill’s departure, and after an indifferent season with Gerard Houllier there was the walking disaster that is Alex McLeish. With a high wage bill and dwindling success, owner Randy Lerner looked to reign in the spending, and the appointment of Paul Lambert was with the understanding that budgets would be trimmed.

Fortunately for Villa, they have a wonderful habit of bringing through youth products. Not all of them go on to the highest level – Gaby Agbonlahor has failed to find the consistency to become a top Premier League striker, Craig Gardner is at struggling Sunderland, Luke Moore is often on the bench for Swansea while the likes of Barry Bannan and Marc Albrighton have seen their stars fade a little – but there is a constant conveyor belt of talent coming through that. Lambert likes to give young British players a chance, as demonstrated by his spell at Norwich where Grant Holt, Wes Hoolahan, Elliot Bennett, Bradley Johnson and John Ruddy are amongst the players who have made the step up from the Championship and lower. At Villa it is the same.

Nathan Baker, Andreas Weimann, and Ciaran Clark have come through the academy to become first team regulars this season, while Gary Gardener would surely have made a mark if injury had not ruined his season. Lambert has also signed players from the Football League (Ashley Westwood from Crewe, Matt Lowton from Sheffield United, Joe Bennett from Middlesbrough, Jordan Bowery from Chesterfield) and given more prominence to battling Englishman Fabian Delph. At a time when Roy Hodgson is lamenting the lack of English players playing in the Premiership, Lambert is giving that talent a chance, showing no fear when it comes to transfers, allying big money transfers like hattrick hero Christian Benteke and Ron Vlaar with home grown and ‘lower league’ players.

This season has not been without its setbacks, and the loss of Stiliyan Petrov to illness was a massive blow. His experience and leadership have been missed and this was exacerbated when Dutch international Vlaar was injured in the first half of the campaign. Villa and Lambert fought through the tough times and have come out the other side, and Monday night’s 6-1 win over Sunderland was clearly their most impressive result and performance of the year. The attacking play finally appears to have come together, although the defence still looks liable to concede there is at least hope for the future.

The January signing of Yacouba Sylla underwhelmed many observers, at 22 the defensive midfielder did not appear to be what Villa needed by Lambert knew better. Lowton has improved as the season has worn on, while Benteke has been one of the Premiership stand out players and Villa will do well to hold on to him in the summer. If the Congo-born Belgian international does leave, Villa will be making a very hefty profit.

After the win over Sunderland, Villa look in a good shape to stay up this season. If Lambert can work his magic again in the transfer window, offloading a few of the higher wage earners like Shay Given, Richard Dunne, Darren Bent and Stephen Ireland, and bring through even more young British talent, the long term future of Aston Villa looks very exciting. While they will never be able to compete on the same level as Manchester United, City or Chelsea, they have at least identified a plan to return the club to its former glories. A financially honest plan that relies on British talent? That is something we can all admire.

Reading ready for the Championship but QPR are the Premiership team

It was fitting that Reading and QPR played out a pretty dire 0-0 draw that confirmed both teams’ relegation from the Premiership. Reading never really looked capable of surviving, and the sacking of Brian McDermott in March was senseless. QPR had a squad assembled by a ten-year-old playing Football Manager, and the malaise that set in under Mark Hughes continued under Harry Redknapp.

For both clubs, missing out on the increased broadcast deal that kicks in next season (bottom will get as much in 2014 as City did for winning the league in 2012) is a blow to their short and medium term futures, but Reading and QPR have their own issues to overcome. Somewhat strangely, Reading look better prepared for the Championship but Queens Park Rangers are nearer the level required to be a Premiership club.

Firstly, let’s look at Reading. The squad has championship written all over it, with only Pavel Pogrebnyak having a CV that looks anything like top flight. Even then, the big Russian showed how unpredictable he could be when on loan at Fulham – he scored five goals in his first three appearances, but 1 in the next 9 – and the fact he chose the Championship champions over an established Premier League side hinted that professional ambition was less a driving force than the pay package he would receive.

The only other player who has been linked with a stay in the Premiership next season is goalkeeper Alex McCarthy, primarily off the back of his stellar display in shutting out Liverpool a couple of weeks ago. No one else has made an impression, even January player of the month Adam Le Fondre, whose goal scoring exploits started and finished over the New Year period.

The side is largely the same one that went on a storming run in the first half of 2012 to march to the Championship title. Added to this have been Gareth McLeary, Danny Guthrie, Steven Kelly and Adrian Mariappa, good second tier players or ones Premier League teams no longer wanted. With Nigel Adkins at the helm, it would be no surprise to see the Royals competing for promotion next season, and the club is run in a way that means they will have made the most of their season in the top flight, but should they get promoted again the starting XI and first team squad needs major investment to compete in the Premiership.

QPR, on the other hand, are laden full of so called ‘quality players’, but their performances on the pitch have beggared belief. There are Champions League winners in Julio Cesar, Jose Bosingwa, Park Ji-Sung; internationals like Rob Green, Loic Remy, Adel Taarabt, Stephane M’Bia, Esteban Granero, Shaun Wright-Phillips, Jermaine Jenas, Bobby Zamora; and Premier League players like Chris Samba, Junior Holiett, Adam Johnson, Nedum Onuoha and many, many others. For both Mark Hughes and Harry Redknapp to fail to find a team amongst that lot speaks badly of both the managers and the players.

QPR are a small club compared to the rest of the league, but they have a massive wage bill and have splashed out lavishly under Tony Fernandes. Loftus Road only holds around 18,000 but the club does have the allure of being in London, and plans are afoot to have a much larger stadium. However, in the short term they have to deal with that wage bill that is already excessive compared to their revenue in the Premier League, never mind the Championship.

Does Fernandes fund the club for another year and hope to bounce back up first time round? Do they try to cut the fat from the squad, or restart completely? Will Redknapp stick around? The club has far more resources on its playing squad than Reading, so if the Hoops decide to sell they can, hypothetically, generate more revenue but with so many players on such big contracts buyers might be hard to find, and Rangers may end up paying a large proportion of the players’ wages even after they have moved on, a bit like Leeds had to.

It is clear the squad is unbalanced and needs a spring clean – that would be the situation even if QPR stayed up – and if Redknapp sticks around he will show his ruthless side and get rid of the players he does not fancy (all of them?). As the ex-Spurs boss said, if the players think they are too good for the championship or think they will sail to promotion then why did they get relegated in the first place?

However, Redknapp is a proven Premier League manager, QPR do have a history of playing in the top league, and if they can get back into the Premiership, even after a lot of buying and selling, you would fancy them to stay up rather than Reading. The base level of the playing squad is, theoretically, much higher than Reading’s, the owner looks more willing to invest and pay high wages, and there is the lure of London (although I appreciate Reading is not far from London, it is still a factor).

Apart from the big shortfall financially, the other problem is whether whoever is left at QPR come August is ready for the unique challenge of the Championship. As this season has shown, anyone can beat anyone. The Championship is probably the most competitive league on the planet and if a team can get on a run they can suddenly surge right up the table, as Reading can testify. Will QPR’s foreign contingent be ready for the physical battles, the intense atmosphere at away grounds, the sheer number of matches? Only time will tell.

Plenty of sides have fallen out of the Premier League and struggled in the Championship despite appearing to have a higher quality team (Wolves and to a lesser extent Blackburn are prime examples this season) but with a summer window to shop Redknapp would be fancied to right the wrongs of the last twelve to eighteen months and get a team that can get out of the Championship and be ready to stay in the Premiership. Reading are a stable side and know what the second tier is all about, but as this season showed they are a long way from being a Premier League team.